BRICS and the Asteroid Effect: How Existential Threats Shape Global Decision-Making

When leaders perceive existential threats, they often make choices that create new risks. This is the asteroid effect — an extension of asteroid economics — where the pressure of survival narrows decisions to the short term, even when the long view would serve better. As I wrote in my Psyche piece on consumption, the asteroid effect doesn’t just distort markets. It distorts diplomacy.

The BRICS countries show this pattern in real time. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, meant to counter NATO’s reach, has deepened its isolation from markets and technology. China’s territorial pushes, driven by encirclement fears, have only strengthened regional alliances against it. Brazil, during political crises, has leaned on quick economic fixes that undercut future stability. In each case, fear crowds out strategy. The same dynamic we see in panic buying during Y2K or luxury splurges amid climate disasters: a grasp for control when control feels impossible. But the pattern is not destiny. The BRICS’ New Development Bank succeeded because it created mutual benefit rather than rivalry. Expanded trade and coordinated responses to outside pressure show that existential threats don’t always drive leaders into defensive isolation. The asteroid effect tempts, but it doesn’t bind.

Two strategies help break the cycle. The first is reframing threats as shared problems. When leaders present climate, technology, or financial shocks as collective challenges, they reduce the isolation that triggers short-term reactions. The second is redundancy — building buffers against vulnerability through diversified supply chains, resilient infrastructure, and multiple partnerships. Populations that feel less fragile give leaders the room to plan further ahead.

The asteroid effect defines an inflection point. Nothing is set in stone. Leaders can amplify fear and spiral into defensive moves. Or they can build cooperation and resilience. BRICS shows both paths are possible, and it reflects something more profound about human psychology: — under pressure, we reach for the immediate, but with cooperation and the patience to think beyond crisis, we can still make room for the future.