Asteroid Economics is a theoretical construct explaining civilizational-scale behavioral responses to existential threats. It suggests that when people live with constant reminders of mortality, the impulse to conserve weakens and indulgence takes hold.
The concept emerged from observing a recurring pattern across historical crises where when faced with existential threats—famine, plague, financial collapse, or persistent warnings about climate, nuclear, and AI risks— social actors often shift toward immediate gratification rather than long-term conservation. This counterintuitive response appears when people perceive their future as fundamentally uncertain or beyond their control.
Doubtful? Ask yourself — does knowing our risks make us safer, or does it push us to act in ways that add to them?
While it intersects with Terror Management Theory, the asteroid effect is a novel construct that provides additional insights into how societies systematically shift from conservation to consumption when facing perceived civilizational collapse.
Hypothesis
For over twenty years, M I Krueger has worked at the intersection of risk analysis, systems engineering, and organizational behavior, both as a practitioner and researcher, examining how people and institutions respond under conditions they cannot fully control.
Observations from defense acquisition and conflict zones showed that when survival feels uncertain, people and organizations respond in unexpected ways. These insights became the foundation of Asteroid Economics.
Theorist
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Have you observed patterns where existential threat produced acceleration instead of restraint? Share your historical case, contemporary observation, or research insight. Selected submissions may be featured as part of the growing Asteroid Economics archive.